This study uses National Assessment Program — Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) data linked with records from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) to better understand the association between students’ early academic performance at school and their schooling outcomes measured by the Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR).

Analysis from mixed-effect modelling showed early academic achievement plays an important role in predicting the likelihood of receiving an ATAR and achieving a high ATAR. The study also found that most of the variation in a student’s ATAR performance could be attributed to their demographic profile or academic ability rather than the school they attend.